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Statistical concepts in risk analysis - PetroWiki
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Your report should cover the following issues (assuming that you are in September 2014- date of the attached fact sheet)
Step 1-Scope of Analysis:
1. Who do we have a risk on? Legal Counterparties/ Credit base. (draw an organogram).
2. What specifically were we asking the credit committee to approve in the attached fact sheet (nature of the transaction, credit need, source of repayment)?
Step 2-Credit Risk Grid
3. Describe the business (activity/products, clients, geography, competitors, suppliers, technology)
4. What are the major Business Risks and Mitigants?
5. What is your view on the reliability of data (auditor, accounting policies, off balance sheet items etc)?
6. Prioritize the relevant historic income statement and balance sheet ratio trends to be analyzed in the CA
7. Prioritize the non-financial factors causing these historic trends
8. Analyze Cash Flow statements using PACED and TANK as discussed in the previous phases.
9. Are there any structure risks arising from the group structure or the nature of the transactions provided by NBAD?
How to Write an Analytical Essay: 15 Steps (with Pictures)
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Do the white-collar criminals as portrayed in the film consistently display the personality traits of risk seekers?
Do those who avoid or feel uncomfortable being involved with white collar crimes fall into the two other personality traits, the risk averters and the risk neutral? Draw out of the film as many examples as you are able to find that are relevant to risk analysis theory.
Is the pattern of risk seeking and the personality trait of greed reversible?
What kind of socialization processes produce or prevent the development of this pattern? Give very specific examples of social-psychological variables and other micro-level variables such as family bonding, values and personality traits drawn directly from the film.
Is greed seeking (illustrated by many street crimes such as gambling and substance abuse and addiction) just another form of risk taking?
How to Write an Analytical Essay
Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment Project
Select a serious workplace hazard with which you are familiar, or use Steps 1 and 2 of the Hazard Analysis and Risk
Assessment Guide on page 114 of the course textbook to help you select one. Use Steps 3-10 of the guide to evaluate
the hazard and its associated risks, and then click here to access the Unit IV Hazard Analysis/Risk Analysis Project Form.
Please note that you will have to save a copy in order to fill out the form using the ?Add Text? tool.
To complete the Initial Risk Assessment and Post Control Risk Assessment sections, use the following codes based on
the Risk Assessment Matrix in Table 11 of the textbook:
1 ? Catastrophic
2 ? Critical
3 ? Marginal
4 ? Negligible
PROBABILITY (Likelihood of Occurrence):
A ? Frequent
B ? Probable
C ? Occasional
D ? Remote
E ? Improbable
H ? High
S ? Serious
M ? Medium
L ? Low
All sections of the form must be completed. Note that the Post Control Risk Assessment Measures section reflects the risk
assessment AFTER applying the Additional Control Measures. In a paragraph of at least 500 words, explain the
reasoning behind how you filled out each section of the form. Insert the completed form into the same Word document
with your paragraph, using APA formatting for the paper format as well as for all references and in-text citations.
Manuele, F. (2008). Advanced safety management focusing on Z10 and serious injury prevention. Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons.
Based only on the information available on the word doc attached please present a project risk analysis with the excel Risk response tool provided.
All the data, info and other relevant information needed for the analysis are available ONLY in the word document. Therefore there is no need to search additional information in the web.
Just to be clearer the assignment is to analyze the 787 Dreamliner project risk only with the excel tool and only with the info available in the word document provided.
About the excel tool (Risk response plan template ) any information about what to insert and how to describe the risk is available at the top right of any cell within the file. Just follow the indication available.
Provide a minimum of 15 risks in the file, (first 15 ID lines in the excel file).
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Risk Analysis Essay - Paper Topics
Produce a BUDGET REPORT document to the Project Sponsor, who is not knowledgeable about the cost estimating process or Monte Carlo simulation, that must strictly have has the following sections (a-f):
a) Introduction: e.g. executive summary (key results within the report), project scope, and any other relevant information (10 marks)
b) Recommended Baseline Budget (excluding contingency), Composed of 10-30 cost variables (10 marks)
(This is a deterministic estimate based on most likely value for each cost variable, excluding risk events and contingency).
Explain the source of information used to produce this budget
Once you have completed the above deterministic baseline budget, then conduct Monte Carlo Simulation (including correlations). Your cost model for MCS will:
• replace deterministic values in the Recommended Baseline Budget with probability distributions ,
• and add 3 specific risk events
c) Brief explain your 3 risk events (one short paragraph each risk – briefly explaining what the risk event is. Do not discuss: causes; probability or consequences; or treatments ) (5 marks)
d) Recommendation for Contingency (explaining reasons) (10 marks)
e) Sensitivity Analysis – based on the Tornado Chart, explain to the Sponsor how you will manage:
I. Most sensitive cost variable (10 marks)
II. Most sensitive risk event (10 marks)
f) Compare and comment on the your cost results against the organisational policy that states “it is expected that the Baseline Budget should have an 80% probability of being with a range of -5/+10%,” (10 marks)
I. Quick Output Report (no marks but should be referred to in answering above points)
II. The sponsor wants to understand MCS. To facilitate this, the sponsor has asked:
i. Explain and justify the selected values (minimum, most likely and maximum) in the probability distributions for ONE of the cost variables (10 marks )
ii. Explain and justify the selected values (minimum, most likely and maximum) (10 marks) and probability of occurrence for ONE of the risk events (5 marks)
III. Correlation matrix. Select 2 correlated variables (i.e. one correlation) from your cost model. Explain why they might be correlated. And the likely nature and strength of this correlation (10 marks )
Risk Analysis Essay Example for Free
1. Following steps 1-11 of the Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment Guide in the course textbook (pp. 171-174), develop a risk assessment for a serious workplace hazard with which you are familiar, or use Addendum D to Chapter 11 (pp. 202-206) to help you select a hazard. Evaluate the hazard and its associated risks, and then complete the Hazard Analysis and Risk Analysis Project form (click here to access this form). To complete the Initial Risk Assessment and Post Control Risk Assessment sections, use the following codes based on the Risk Assessment Matrix in Table 11.10 (p.180) of the textbook:
1 – Catastrophic
2 – Critical
3 – Marginal
4 – Negligible
PROBABILITY (Likelihood of Occurrence):
A – Frequent
B – Probable
C – Occasional
D – Remote
E – Improbable
H – High
S – Serious
M – Medium
L – Low
All sections of the form must be completed. Note that the “Post Control Risk Assessment Measures” section reflects the risk assessment AFTER applying the additional control measures.
2. In a separate document of at least 500 words, explain the reasoning behind how you filled out each section of the form. Use references as needed to support the discussion.
BOS 3651, Total Environmental Health and Safety Management 3
Upload both the completed form and the discussion document. Be sure that the discussion document is in APA format with a title page and a reference page.
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